Gross gaming revenue (GGR) in the world’s largest gaming hub is expected to recover 63 percent of 2019 levels by year-end versus the previous estimate at only 45 percent of the recovery rate, according to Jefferies Equity Research.
Macau recorded a GGR of MOP292.46 billion ($36.3 billion) in 2019, which means that in 2023, Macau could generate nearly $23 billion from gaming revenue.
Macau’s mass market gross gaming revenue is expected to recover 86 percent in 2023 and 100 percent only in 2024.
Macau GGR stood at MOP96.8 billion ($12 billion) for the first seven months of the year, an increase of 263 percent from a year earlier. The tally represents only 56 percent of the GGR of MOP174 billion ($21.6 billion) generated from January to July 2019.
According to the investment note, Jefferies Equity says that Galaxy Entertainment Group (GEG) remains the ‘top pick in the sector’ due to attractive products, especially with potentially continued stronger foot traffic from Phase 3 opening impact and net cash.
Regarding Galaxy Macau’s 2Q23 performance, analyst Andrew Lee notes that ‘the positive surprise from company’s 1H23 result was special dividend (HK$0.20/share) as this reflects their optimistic outlook. ’
‘The key negative was flagship Galaxy Macau’s margin falling q-q but due to lower retail sales, when the 1Q23 results were exceptionally high.’
The strong momentum into the third quarter also impresses analyst, with daily drop and win above 2019 levels, Phase 3 opening positive impact from Raffles hotel and new Horizon Premium Club, and gaining market share in August.
In addition, Andrew Lee also mentioned that GEG had minimal impact from group tours reinstated for Mainland China visitors to Japan and South Korea.