Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first five days of November was estimated at MOP2.8 billion ($347.6 million), equivalent to MOP560 million ($70 million) per day, according to investment bank Citigroup.
Analysts note that the implied daily run-rate of about $70 million per day was 9 percent lower than that of the final eight days of last month, which stood at MOP613 million ($76.1 million) per day.
“We believe that the slower daily run-rate is likely reflecting normal seasonality, as November is usually the seasonally slower month in the fourth quarter,” state the analysts.
Based on industry sources, VIP volumes were approximately 15-17 percent lower month-on-month, while mass GGR was about 11-13 percent lower. The VIP hold rate appears to be around the normal level.
The research team from Citigroup notes that the Macau tourism industry anticipates average daily visitation to reach 100,000 during the 70th Macau Grand Prix weekends, scheduled for November 11th-12th and 16th-19th.
“We conservatively maintain our November estimated GGR forecast at MOP16 billion ($2 billion), which is still at 70 percent of 2019 level,” note the analysts.
According to JP Morgan‘s observation, MOP560 million ($70 million) per day is “a pretty good figure, in line with summer holiday levels.” The run-rate in August was at MOP555 million ($68.9) per day. “The number indicates that mass GGR is running comfortably at 100 percent of pre-COVID levels compared to around 95 percent recovery in 3Q23 and 105 percent recovery in October, while VIP demand remains at around 23-25 percent levels,” they note.
Macau’s GGR reached MOP19.5 billion ($2.42 billion) in October, marking a 30.6 percent increase from September.
Due to Golden Week, which runs for eight consecutive days, the country’s October 1st National Day coincided with the Mid-Autumn Festival. The October total was up 400 percent from the prior-year period, setting a new record since the pandemic.
Macau’s casino GGR stood at MOP148.5 billion ($18.4 billion) for the ten months ending on October 31st, an increase of 315.6 percent from a year earlier.
According to the latest government budget plan, Macau authorities raised the GGR projection for 2024 to MOP210 billion ($26.1 billion).