JP Morgan does not expect Sands China’s weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter performance in 2025 to derail its path toward dividend normalization, maintaining its forecast for a higher payout in 2026, according to a research note.
In its latest Asia-Pacific equity research report, the investment bank said it continues to project a final dividend of HK$0.50 ($0.06) for the first half of 2026, compared with HK$0.25 ($0.03) paid in each half of 2025, and a full-year dividend of HK$1 ($0.13) for calendar year 2026. Analysts noted that this would support a dividend yield of more than 5 percent at the current share price.
The bank acknowledged that Sands China missed expectations in the fourth quarter of 2025, citing margin pressure from an unfavorable business mix, weak mass-market hold rates, and rising operating expenses. As a result, JP Morgan trimmed its forward EBITDA forecasts by around 3 percent.
However, analysts described the fourth-quarter softness as largely seasonal or non-recurring, pointing to factors such as NBA preseason events and the impact of the National Games. They said these issues were unlikely to have a lasting effect on the company’s earnings trajectory.
‘A 10 percent drop [in the share price] in one month looks excessive, given that the recent weakness was mainly temporary,’ the report said, adding that Sands China is expected to gain market share in 2026.
JP Morgan reiterated its ‘overweight’ rating on the stock, citing improving market share momentum since the second quarter of 2025 and expectations of continued recovery. The bank also expects Sands China to double its annual dividend from 2026, viewing this as the start of a gradual, multi-year increase that could exceed HK$1.50 ($0.19) per share by 2028.
Despite near-term earnings pressure, analysts said the company’s balance sheet, cash flow outlook, and improving industry conditions support its longer-term capital return strategy.
