Macau’s gaming industry is projected to see 6.5 percent growth in gross gaming revenue (GGR) for 2025, with China’s economic improvement and specifically its upper middle class consumers playing a crucial role in driving this upward trend, according to a recent report from Seaport.
The forecast comes after Macau’s April GGR data release, which showed relatively flat year-on-year performance. According to Vitaly Umansky, senior analyst at Seaport, stronger growth is expected in the second half of the year, with projections of 10.9 percent growth in the second half compared to just 2.2 percent in the first half.
‘China economy improvement, especially the upper middle class consumer, is key to driving upward growth in Macau,’ notes Umansky in the report. This perspective comes as March GGR reached MOP19.66 billion ($2.46 billion), representing a modest 0.8 percent year-on-year increase and achieving 76.1 percent of March 2019 levels.
The report indicates that while Macau’s recovery continues, it remains uneven across different segments. Premium segments have shown strong performance since the COVID recovery began in early 2023, currently running over 40 percent above 2019 levels. However, the base mass segment continues to lag, remaining more than 15 percent below pre-pandemic figures.
‘In order to drive outsized growth in 2025 and 2026, base mass recovery will be key,’ Umansky emphasizes. ‘We forecast significant improvement in the second half of 2025 and 2026 as consumer confidence in China rises and the upper middle class base mass customers deploy their spending power.’
The anticipated growth is closely tied to China’s economic policies and stimulus measures. Recent developments in China’s policy approach offer reasons for optimism. ‘The Chinese government’s March announcement of a focus on boosting consumption and improving consumer confidence is an important leading indicator of a strengthening China consumer and a driver of mass revenue growth in Macau in the future,’ the report states.
This marks a significant shift in focus. As Umansky points out, ‘The government has prioritized a policy plan to improve consumption, identified as the top priority in the government’s work report, for the first time since Xi Jinping came to power.’
Early economic indicators from China are showing positive trends. January and February retail sales rose to 4 percent year-on-year growth, up from 3.5 percent in 2024. The housing market, while still declining, is showing signs of stabilization, with February new home sales dropping at their lowest monthly rate since June 2024. Manufacturing PMI hit 50.5 in March, the best reading since March 2024, while consumer confidence in January recorded its strongest level since April 2024.
Despite concerns around geopolitical developments, including potential escalation of US tariffs, Seaport believes that China’s focus on economic stimulus will provide a positive tailwind to Macau revenues. ‘We expect China policymakers to more forcefully implement stimulative measures to help drive consumption and improve consumer confidence,’ notes the report.
As China continues to implement policies aimed at economic recovery and boosting consumer confidence, Macau’s gaming industry appears positioned for steady growth through 2025, with potentially stronger performance in the years ahead should China’s economic trajectory and consumer sentiment continue to improve.
