Good Morning. In nature, nothing is lost. Macau’s gaming industry is undergoing a structural transformation, marked by a significant decline in commissions and rebates due to new regulations that reduce the role of junkets, while operators manage to sustain revenue levels with lower associated costs. Meanwhile, Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is projected to grow by 5–6 percent in 2026, driven by strong gains in the mass and slot segments, while industry profit growth is expected to outpace top-line expansion for the first time, reflecting improvements following a better-than-anticipated recovery in 2025.
What you need to know
- Research finds Macau concessionaires now generate similar GGR despite steep declines in commissions and rebates as junkets lose influence.
- JP Morgan expects Macau GGR to grow 5–6% in 2026, led by mass and slots, with profit growth slightly outpacing revenue as margins stabilize.
On the radar
- Macau visitor arrivals hit a record 40.06 million in 2025.
- South Korea’s Jeju Dream Tower casino sales jump 61.8% year-on-year in 2025.
- Sri Lanka’s casino entrance levy increased.
AGB Intelligence
MACAU
Gaming industry undergoes structural shift as commissions plummet
Macau’s gaming industry is experiencing a significant structural transformation under the new gaming concession framework, with a notable decline in commissions, incentives, and rebates, dropping to $4.94 billion in 2024 from $7.83 billion in 2019. This decline is sharper than the decrease in gross gaming revenue (GGR), which fell by a smaller margin, suggesting operators are maintaining revenue levels while significantly reducing costs associated with intermediary junkets, whose influence has been weakened by new regulations.
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