Maybank has cut its 2026 EBITDA forecast for Bloomberry Resorts by 6 percent and still expects a loss this year, despite signs that casino operations are stabilizing.
In a September 25th note, analyst Raffy Mendoza lowered the EBITDA estimate to PHP12.9 billion ($205.8 million) and forecast a core net loss of approximately PHP2.36 billion ($37.6 million), excluding one-off items.
Nevertheless, Maybank upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold, saying ‘the negatives appear to be priced in’ after Bloomberry’s shares fell close to 40 percent since its January update.
While VIP and premium-mass demand remained subdued, the brokerage pointed to ‘consecutive quarters of EBITDA growth driven by management’s prudent cost management initiatives’.
Maybank also reduced its 2027 EBITDA forecast by 9 percent to PHP16.1 billion ($257.1 million), while projecting a return to core profit of around PHP420 million ($6.7 million).
Cost controls support stabilization
The revised forecasts still imply year-on-year EBITDA growth of about 30 percent in 2026 and 25 percent in 2027 under Maybank’s model. Depreciation and interest expenses continue to weigh on the bottom line.
Maybank attributed sequential improvements in the first two quarters to higher VIP GGR at Solaire Entertainment City, stronger slot revenue at its Quezon City property and cost optimization.
Maybank forecasts EBITDA margins to recover from 19 percent in 2025 to 25.6 percent this year and 28.9 percent in 2027. These remain below the historical average of 34.8 percent cited for 2017–2025, excluding 2020 and 2021.
Solaire Resort Quezon City, formerly Solaire Resort North, is expected to grow faster as it builds business following its May 2024 opening. Maybank forecasts GGR growth of 8 percent this year and 17 percent in 2027.
By comparison, Solaire Entertainment City’s GGR, excluding online gaming, is forecast to remain broadly flat this year before rising 3 percent in 2027. VIP and mass-table betting volumes are expected to recover gradually next year.
Maybank is also monitoring management’s efforts to revisit its commission strategy and secure junket operators at Entertainment City.
It cautioned that the second half could be ‘another challenging period for the gaming sector’, with macroeconomic weakness and a slow recovery in foreign tourism remaining risks to GGR growth.
Online gaming contribution expected in early 2027
According to Maybank, management expects online gaming to make a ‘meaningful revenue contribution towards the start of 2027’.
Bloomberry commercially launched its mass-market platform FUNaloMax, rebranded from MegaFUNalo!, in July. The group also operates the premium-focused Solaire Online platform.
Maybank identified the expansion of these platforms as a potential catalyst, alongside recovering VIP revenue and a growing contribution from the Quezon City resort.
