Maybank Securities has cut its 2026 and 2027 core profit forecasts for DigiPlus Interactive Corp by 43 percent and 48 percent, respectively, as weak player spending and macroeconomic pressure push an expected earnings recovery into next year.
In an October 5th report, analyst Raffy Mendoza lowered projected core net income to PHP7.8 billion ($124.8 million) for 2026 and PHP8.6 billion ($137.6 million) for 2027.
The brokerage now expects core earnings per share to fall about 39 percent this year, reversing its previous forecast for 8 percent growth. A gradual recovery is expected in 2027, with growth of around 10 percent.
Mendoza attributed the cuts to a first-half earnings miss and ‘expectations that the gaming sector will be hurt by macroeconomic weakness as active users reduce their spending.’
Maybank expects weak economic growth and elevated inflation to constrain online gaming customers’ disposable income, weighing on both user activity and average revenue per user through the second half.
Player spending falls short
DigiPlus’ user numbers exceeded Maybank’s expectations in the second quarter, but spending per player lagged substantially.
Monthly active users reached 5.75 million across BingoPlus, ArenaPlus and GameZone, compared with the brokerage’s forecast of 4.75 million. However, Maybank estimated average monthly spending per active user at approximately PHP805 ($12.88), against its assumption of PHP1,250 ($20).
The spending shortfall helps explain why a larger-than-expected user base did not deliver the earnings Maybank had anticipated.
The brokerage lowered its revenue forecasts for 2026 through 2028 by 18 to 32 percent after reducing its assumptions for monthly active users and average revenue per user. It now forecasts revenue of PHP65.4 billion ($1.05 billion) this year and PHP64.9 billion ($1.04 billion) in 2027.
Its projections therefore point to a limited recovery: core earnings would improve next year even as revenue remained slightly below the 2026 forecast.
The earnings revisions also incorporate higher-than-expected depreciation and a higher assumed income tax rate. Maybank excludes non-cash gains from its core earnings estimates.
The brokerage said stronger player retention and higher average revenue per user could support improvement in DigiPlus’ domestic online business. Better user activity and margins could also provide room to raise its forecasts, while tighter regulation and intensified competition remain downside risks.
