Macau’s casino floors were unusually quiet during Citigroup’s latest table survey, with observed premium-mass wagering falling 45 percent year-on-year and player numbers down 20 percent, prompting the brokerage to cut its September gross gaming revenue forecast.
Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau described the September survey results as ‘among the worst in recent history,’ based on observations made last Friday.
Total premium-mass wagers observed during the survey fell to HK$6.8 million ($871,000), from HK$12.3 million in September 2025. The number of premium-mass players declined to 401, while the average wager per player dropped 31 percent to HK$16,958 ($2,174), from HK$24,550 ($3,147) a year earlier.
The analysts said casino floors were generally quieter than three months earlier, when the FIFA World Cup had just begun.
However, Citigroup cautioned that it ‘cannot firmly conclude’ whether the weak showing reflected a decline in players’ willingness to spend or simply the timing of the survey.
The observations were made one week before the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday and about two weeks ahead of October Golden Week, when some players may choose to visit Macau instead.
September GGR forecast lowered
Citigroup lowered its forecast for Macau’s September gross gaming revenue to MOP18 billion ($2.25 billion), from MOP19 billion ($2.38 billion).
The revised estimate would imply a 4 percent year-on-year decline in Macau’s third-quarter GGR, according to the note.
The analysts pointed to September 2024 as an example of how travel timing can distort a monthly snapshot. Weak GGR that month initially made investors pessimistic, but Citigroup said many players had postponed their Macau trips until October to attend an Andy Lau concert during Golden Week, contributing to stronger GGR in the following month.
Macau’s October event calendar this year includes concerts at Galaxy Arena by René Liu, Jane Zhang, ENHYPEN and Richie Jen. The Venetian and Londoner arenas are also scheduled to host Sara Landry and the NBA China Games, while MGM will stage a Jonathan Lee concert.
Fewer high-stakes players observed
Citigroup counted 14 ‘whales,’ its term for high-stakes premium-mass players, during the September survey. That was 17 fewer than in August and 13 fewer than in September 2025.
The two largest individual wagers observed were HK$300,000 ($38,500) each, placed at the Chairman’s Club at Wynn Palace and the Supreme Room at MGM Cotai. Citigroup also recorded a HK$220,000 ($28,200) wager at StarWorld’s Horizon Room and a HK$130,000 ($16,700) wager at the Signature Club in Studio City’s Epic Tower.
Galaxy Entertainment Group regained the leading position in Citigroup’s premium-mass survey, accounting for 26 percent of the total wagers observed, up from 20 percent a year earlier.
MGM China ranked second with a 24 percent share, compared with 9 percent in September 2025. Citigroup observed five high-stakes players across MGM’s two casinos, the largest number among Macau’s six gaming concessionaires.
