Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) is tracking a year-on-year decline of 3 percent to 5 percent in the third quarter, below HSBC’s existing forecast for 2 percent growth. The softer outlook comes amid weaker premium-player volumes in early September.
For September, HSBC expects GGR to reach MOP17.6 billion to MOP18.8 billion ($2.18 billion to $2.33 billion). That would represent a year-on-year movement of between a 4 percent decline and 3 percent growth.
UBS, in a separate report, said market consensus remained for September GGR growth of approximately 7 percent to 10 percent. The consensus range is more optimistic than the latest estimates from HSBC.
Both banks estimated Macau’s GGR at approximately MOP7.9 billion ($978 million) for the first 13 days of September. The month-to-date pace was broadly flat year-on-year but 14 percent below August on a daily average basis.
‘The slowdown appears driven by lower volume from premium players,’ UBS wrote in its September 14th report.
Mass-market daily revenue was estimated to have fallen between 12 percent and 15 percent month-on-month. VIP rolling volume declined by approximately 15 percent to 18 percent.
HSBC said the overall VIP win rate remained above normal at between 3.1 percent and 3.4 percent.
The bank characterized September’s performance as ‘broadly in line with the usual seasonal pattern.’ It also noted that August provided a relatively low comparison base and that the year-on-year comparison should benefit from typhoon-related casino closures in September 2025.
UBS took a more cautious view, noting that the month-to-date sequential decline was steeper than the average seasonal decrease recorded between 2015 and 2019.
Golden Week hotel pricing
Separately, UBS’s forward booking survey showed higher hotel pricing for the October 1st–7th Golden Week. Among the 31 Macau hotels monitored by the bank, one fewer property was sold out than a year earlier, while average comparable room prices were 19 percent higher.
