The impact of Super Typhoon Saola and the heavy rainstorms in Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) should make September a ‘month to forget’, brokerage JP Morgan indicates in a recent report.
According to JP Morgan checks, GGR reported by the Macau casino industry for the first 10 days of September was estimated at MOP4.3 billion ($533.1 million) or MOP430 million ($53.3 million) per day.
Macau authorities ordered a nine-hour shutdown of all casinos starting between September 1 and 2 night as the city raised the No. 10 storm signal for Typhoon Saola, with the city’s borders and external transportation links closed or suspended.
The brokerage now expects Macau’s GGR to retreat 15-20 percent month-to-month to MOP14-14.5 billion ($1.7 billion), or between MOP465-480 million ($59.5 million) per day, versus the consensus of MOP15.8 billion ($1.9 billion) or MOP525 million ($65 million) per day, entering the month.
‘But again, the market will likely look through this print (which was dragged by extreme weather), while all eyes will be on Golden Week anyway by the time the September GGR is out,’ analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi, and Selina Li said in the report.
Brokerage Morgan Stanley has previously predicted a smaller 6 percent drop in September to MOP16.1 billion ($1.9 billion).
Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue grew by 3.3 percent month-on-month, to MOP17.2 billion ($2.1 billion) in August, the highest monthly volume this year.
August saw a daily average of MOP555 million ($68.7 million) in GGR, which is an improvement over the daily averages of MOP500 million ($61.9 million) in the second quarter of 2023 and MOP537 million ($66.5 million) in July.
Macau’s casino GGR stood at MOP114 billion ($14.1 billion) for the first eight months of the year, an increase of 295 percent from a year earlier. The tally represents only 39 percent of MOP292.4 billion ($36.1 billion) generated in GGR during 2019.
Local authorities currently expect the city’s annual GGR tally could surpass MOP180 billion ($22.3 billion) this year.
