Gaining premium mass market share in Macau is seen as one of the critical drivers for Wynn’s growth in the next 1-2 years, notes Seaport Research.
In a new investment memo, senior analyst Vitaly Umansky notes that Wynn might gain market share in 2024 but will likely lose share in 2025 as other newer properties ramp up, base mass visitation increases, and other operators focus efforts on premium customers with new larger-scale products such as Sands and Galaxy.
However, ‘Wynn has historically been a strong operator in Macau and has been able to morph with changes in the market, and its refocus on strengthening its premium mass offering should allow it to maintain its positioning,’ notes the analyst.
Overall, the research firm indicates that the critical drivers for Wynn in Macau over the next one-two years will be to ‘take premium gaming market share while building out base mass marketing and capability to drive more mid-week and walk-in traffic into its properties.‘
Wynn Macau is one of the six gaming concessionaires, which focused largely on the higher end of the market, being once a dominant VIP operator; however, the company over the last decade has been transitioning more to premium mass.
Umansky notes that coming out of the concession retendering in 2022, Wynn lost a number of tables, which slightly limits its capability going forward, but this should not be impactful in the near or medium term.
Wynn slower to embrace benefits of smart tables
Seaport observes that Wynn should also benefit from the adoption of smart digital tables, but Wynn is expected to be ‘slower‘ at fully embracing the wide-scale benefits that smart tables will offer compared to some other operators in the market.
Smart gaming tables largely incoroporate RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) technology. MGM China was one of the first operators to adopt RFID tables in 2016.
The Macau gaming operator has been using the technology for analytics to better understand their players and to improve marketing efficiency.
Thailand not ready for US regulated operators
Although Thailand is moving closer to casino legalization, Seaport acknowledges that at present ‘Thailand is not ready for US regulated operators to be involved‘ while commenting on Thailand being one of the options that Wynn is exploring.
Meanwhile, the company continues to move forward on its United Arab Emirates (UAE) joint venture, where Wynn has favorable economics and could see attributable cash flow of about $300 million from that property.
‘When it opens in Q1 ’27, Wynn Al-Marjan will be the only casino in the region, but there is continued discussion about other casinos being allowed in the UAE.’
Umansky notes the key risk to the property would be a casino opening in Dubai versus in Abu Dhabi, which is more likely.
