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Tuesday, November 10, 2026
Macau Asia

CLSA sees Macau September GGR growing just 0.3%, far below 9.5% consensus

CLSA expects Macau’s September GGR to rise just 0.3 percent, far below the market consensus of 9.5 percent growth.

Viviana Chan Viviana ChanSeptember 1, 2026 · 1 min read
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Macau

Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is expected to grow just 0.3 percent year-on-year in September, far below the current market consensus, according to CLSA.

The brokerage forecasts GGR of MOP18.3 billion ($2.27 billion) for the month. The consensus median points to growth of 9.5 percent, with estimates ranging from 0.3 percent to 18 percent.

CLSA’s forecast comes despite a favorable comparison base. Macau casinos were closed for 33 hours during Super Typhoon Ragasa in September last year, equivalent to 4.6 percent of the month’s total operating hours.

September 2025 GGR amounted to MOP18.29 billion ($2.27 billion), up 6 percent year-on-year despite the disruption. CLSA said the closure should support a year-on-year improvement this September, although it expects growth to remain marginal.

The cautious forecast follows a weaker-than-expected finish to August. Official GGR fell 1.2 percent year-on-year to MOP21.89 billion ($2.72 billion), coming in 2 percent below CLSA’s estimate and the consensus median.

Macau August GGR slips 1.2% YoY to $2.71B

CLSA said gaming revenue slowed during the final eight days of August, possibly due to a normalization of VIP win rates. Despite the softer finish, monthly GGR rose 8.1 percent from July, which the brokerage attributed to improved traffic following the end of the FIFA World Cup.

Macau’s accumulated GGR for the first eight months of 2026 rose 3.7 percent year-on-year to MOP169.05 billion ($20.99 billion), equivalent to about 85 percent of the level recorded during the same period in 2019.

Macau-GGR-March-2025

Seaport forecasts stronger September growth

Seaport Research Partners offered a more optimistic outlook, forecasting September GGR of approximately MOP20.1 billion ($2.49 billion), representing year-on-year growth of 10 percent. The estimate is broadly in line with the consensus median but substantially higher than CLSA’s projection.

Despite its stronger September forecast, Seaport also described the post-World Cup recovery as weaker than initially expected, noting no clear release of pent-up demand in August.

The brokerage estimated that mass-market GGR declined slightly year-on-year, while a high VIP hold rate supported the monthly result.

Seaport expects Macau GGR to decline 0.5 percent year-on-year in the third quarter before returning to growth of 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter.

AsiaCLSAgamblingGGRGGR forecastggr growth
Viviana Chan
Written by Viviana Chan Viviana Chan is an editor, interpreter, and journalist. With over a decade of experience, she writes in English, Chinese, and Portuguese. Viviana started her career in Macau-based newspapers, where she became passionate about the region's social, financial, and cultural development. Her writing focuses on the economy, emerging industries, gaming development, political affairs, and cross cultural-exchange in the business and cultural domains. She is avid for news and eager to discover and cover stories that generate public relevance. More from Viviana Chan →
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