China’s tighter capital controls are unlikely to directly hit Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR), according to CreditSights, which said funding channels for gambling in the city were already subject to strict controls.
In a September 28th report, analysts Nicholas Chen and David Bussey wrote: ‘While we do not rule out the tighter regulatory scrutiny remaining an overhang for the Macau gaming sector, we think this is likely to have a more secondary effect (i.e., dampened high roller sentiment) rather than a direct GGR impact given that funding channels for gambling in Macau are already subject to strict controls.’
The report cited regulations on outbound investments by Chinese individuals, including investments in Hong Kong and Macau, which took effect in July. CreditSights said the tighter controls may have weighed on gambling sentiment in August.
Macau’s GGR fell 1.2 percent year-on-year to MOP21.9 billion ($2.71 billion) in August, below market expectations for approximately 1 percent growth.
However, revenue rose 8 percent from July, marking a second consecutive monthly increase. CreditSights attributed the sequential improvement to the fading impact of distractions from the World Cup.
GGR per visitor remains under pressure
Visitor arrivals reached a monthly record of approximately 4.5 million in August, up 6 percent year-on-year. Mainland Chinese arrivals increased 9 percent and accounted for around 80 percent of the total, while non-mainland arrivals fell 5 percent.
Despite the higher visitor count, GGR per visitor declined 7 percent year-on-year to MOP4,888 ($605), compared with MOP5,720 ($708) in July.
The August figure was also around 27 percent below the MOP6,696 ($828) recorded in the same month of 2019.
CreditSights said the decline suggested a lower proportion of casino-goers among visitors and/or a smaller share of higher-spending customers within the player mix. The measure is a proxy calculated using total GGR and visitor arrivals, rather than a direct measure of spending by individual gamblers.
‘We continue to see a difficult path for gaming spending per capita to meaningfully recover,’ the analysts wrote.
For the first eight months, average GGR per visitor stood at MOP5,836 ($722), below MOP6,062 ($750) a year earlier.
Overall GGR nevertheless rose around 4 percent year-on-year to MOP169.1 billion ($20.9 billion) over the period, reaching approximately 72 percent of the government’s MOP236 billion ($29.2 billion) full-year target.
CreditSights also expects high-profile concerts scheduled for the second half of 2026, including performances by ITZY, Super Junior’s Donghae, Henry Lau and i-dle, to support demand.
