The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has cut Cambodia’s 2026 economic growth forecast to 3.9 percent, citing weaker tourism and related services.
The September edition of its Asian Development Outlook lowered the projection from 4.1 percent in July, while retaining its 2027 forecast of 4.7 percent.
International visitor arrivals fell 47.9 percent year-on-year to 1.8 million in the first half of 2026, equivalent to just 52.5 percent of pre-pandemic levels.
ADB attributed the decline to the Middle East conflict, the closure of the Cambodia–Thailand land border and ‘concerns related to the transnational scam industry’.
The bank said lower arrivals weighed on transport, hospitality, trade and retail, leaving services growth below earlier projections.
Manufacturing remained the main driver of economic growth. Exports of manufactured goods excluding garments rose 38.4 percent in the first half, while construction and real estate remained subdued.
ADB also raised its inflation forecast for 2026 to 4.7 percent, citing higher global oil prices and imported costs. Inflation is expected to ease to 2.8 percent in 2027.
The bank warned that prolonged geopolitical tensions, higher commodity prices and continued tourism weakness could further weigh on growth.
