Your Daily Asia Gaming eBrief: Macau in for slower recovery, analysts warn

Good morning.

Despite the promising news coming out of Macau, analysts have warned investors from getting too ahead of themselves given the snail’s pace of the recovery and slow vaccine rollout across the region. In Japan, the “Don of Yokohama” has declared war on all local politicians supporting IR development in the city and aims to use his political weight to bring an anti-casino mayor into power. Crown Resorts in Australia has a new suitor – offering a slightly higher indicative share price than Blackstone’s $8 billion bid, which is now under consideration. Finally, we speak to Bill Mummery of Celton Manx about his new live dealer studio on Isle of Man and the importance of diversification given everything that has been happening in Asia’s online gaming industry.

First, the news

Oaktree offers $3b funding for Crown to buy Packer stake
Enthusiasm for Macau gaming stocks likely over done: Union Gaming
Macau GGR continues to improve, visitation at 15-month high
Full recovery in Macau could be delayed to 2023: Union Gaming
Macau extends quarantine length for three countries
The “Don of Yokohama” declares war on pro-casino politicians
Several Bavet casinos closed in lockdown
Quang Nam province to trial vaccine tourist scheme
Okada Manila Q1 revenue drops 42 percent
NagaCorp looking forward to ASEAN travel bubble
IPI to repatriate Mongolian workers in May

What you need to know

Enthusiasm for Macau gaming stocks likely over done

Investors may be overly optimistic about the prospects for Macau’s gaming stocks given the snail’s pace of the recovery and slow vaccine rollout across the region, according to analysts from Union Gaming. In a report previewing Q1 earnings, analyst John DeCree argues that consensus estimates for next year and as a result the relative stock valuations are likely to be too high. At present, the consensus view is for a full recovery to 2019 levels on both revenue and EBITDA next year, which Union Gaming argues is unlikely.

Oaktree offers $3b funding for Crown to buy Packer stake

Crown Resorts said a group of funds advised by Oaktree Capital Management has offered to help the company by buying back up to $3 billion worth of shares held by James Packer’s Consolidated Press Holdings. Oaktree will provide the financing via a “structured instrument” to buy all, or some of Packer’s 37 percent stake at around $12 a share. Pressure has also mounted on Packer to distance himself from the company after he was named as a central figure in the Bergin inquiry – which revealed a number of lapses in governance and involvement in money laundering.

The “Don of Yokohama” declares war on pro-casino politicians

The so-called “Don of Yokohama,” Chairman Yukio Fujiki of the Yokohama Port Harbor Resort Association, effectively declared political war on Monday on all local politicians who support IR development in the city in defiance of the will of the public majority. Fujiki had been a long-time political supporter of both Prime Minister Suga and Mayor Hayashi, but he has been adamantly opposed to hosting a casino in the city and they became insistent advocates, driving a wedge between them.

Insights

AGB PODCAST

Bill Mummery talks live dealer and the importance of diversification

Bill Mummery, CEO of Celton Manx, talks with Asia Gaming Brief about his new live dealer studio on the Isle of Man and the importance of diversification given the shifting sands in Asia’s online gaming industry. He also talks about sustainability and his company’s adoption of solar panel technology.