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JP Morgan sees Macau October GGR down 2%–4%, cautions on Golden Week

Macau’s October GGR could decline 2%–4% year-on-year, JP Morgan says, cautioning against overreading Golden Week performance.

Viviana Chan Viviana ChanSeptember 23, 2026 · 1 min read
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JP Morgan expects Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) to fall 2 percent to 4 percent year-on-year in October, with a modest decline during Golden Week.

The bank cautioned investors against overreading Golden Week figures because holiday timing and last year’s comparison base differ. It said the key test is whether demand is stabilizing or weakening further: an October GGR decline of more than 5 percent could hurt market sentiment, while growth could trigger a short-term rebound in gaming stocks.

Macau’s casinos generated an estimated MOP12.2 billion ($1.52 billion) in GGR in the first 20 days of September, or MOP610 million ($76 million) a day, according to JP Morgan’s note.

That daily pace was 14 percent below August’s MOP706 million ($87.9 million) average. GGR in the week to September 20 averaged MOP614 million ($76.5 million) a day, up 5 percent from the previous week, partly because casinos won a higher proportion of VIP wagers, the brokerage said.

JP Morgan said the decline from August broadly matched seasonal patterns. The month-to-date daily average was roughly flat year-on-year, below its expectation of low single-digit growth. Demand remained weak, but the figures did not suggest a material change, it said.

This year’s October Golden Week, China’s National Day holiday, runs from October 1st to 7th, while the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday falls separately from September 25th to 27th. The two holiday periods are expected to support visitor traffic heading into the fourth quarter, traditionally one of the busier periods for Macau’s tourism market.

Macau Tourism

According to Macao Daily, hotels expect strong occupancy over Golden Week even as room rates remain under pressure. Macau Hotel Association chairwoman Jocelyn Wong Suk Yan expects occupancy to reach about 90 percent. Bookings for the first three days were already at 70 percent to 80 percent, with Cotai hotels expected to perform better.

Wong said hotel occupancy rose about 5 percent in the first half of the year, while average room rates fell around 10 percent as new hotels added capacity. She expects occupancy to ease on the fourth and fifth days of Golden Week.

AsiagamblingGGRGGR forecastGolden WeekJP Morgan
Viviana Chan
Written by Viviana Chan Viviana Chan is an editor, interpreter, and journalist. With over a decade of experience, she writes in English, Chinese, and Portuguese. Viviana started her career in Macau-based newspapers, where she became passionate about the region's social, financial, and cultural development. Her writing focuses on the economy, emerging industries, gaming development, political affairs, and cross cultural-exchange in the business and cultural domains. She is avid for news and eager to discover and cover stories that generate public relevance. More from Viviana Chan →
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