Strong visitor arrivals during Macau’s October Golden Week have left CLSA’s forecast for the month’s gaming revenue unchanged, with the brokerage highlighting demand after the holiday as crucial to the outcome.
In a latest investment memo, Jeffrey Kiang maintained a forecast of MOP24.1 billion ($3 billion) in October gross gaming revenue (GGR), flat year-on-year, despite healthy minimum bets observed during a visit to Cotai casinos.
‘Our forecast factors in October’s gross gaming revenue to remain flat YoY at MOP24.1bn, and tail-end strength post-Golden Week would be crucial,’ the report stated.
Macau welcomed around 750,800 visitors from October 1st to 4th, averaging approximately 187,700 arrivals a day. Daily arrivals rose from about 169,600 at the start of the period to roughly 210,300 on October 4th.
The brokerage’s October 2nd visit covered Galaxy Macau, the Venetian Macao, the Londoner Macao, the Parisian Macao, Plaza Macao, MGM Cotai and City of Dreams.
Across the mass gaming floors surveyed, the most commonly observed minimum bets ranged from HK$1,000 to HK$3,000 (approximately $128 to $385) per bet. A few tables offered minimum bets of HK$500 ($64), while the highest minimum observed in high-limit areas was HK$10,000 ($1,282).
CLSA described minimum betting levels as healthy and in line with those seen during May’s Golden Week. The observations offered an early view of casino conditions during the holiday, while the brokerage retained its cautious assessment of the wider revenue outlook.
VIP comparison adds pressure
Last year’s VIP win rates present another challenge for October’s year-on-year performance. CLSA’s channel checks put VIP win rates in October 2025 at between 3 percent and 3.9 percent, creating what the brokerage described as a tough comparison.
‘However, the actual GGR for October also depends on the strength of tail-end demand,’ the report noted.
CLSA’s unchanged monthly forecast matches the median market expectation. According to the brokerage, forecasts for October range from a 3.5 percent year-on-year decline to 4 percent growth, with a median of no change.
Looking beyond the holiday, CLSA said it had not seen enough catalysts to drive faster gaming revenue growth over the next six months. Its broader forecasts also remained unchanged, with fourth-quarter 2026 GGR expected to decline marginally by 1 percent year-on-year, followed by growth of 2 percent in 2027.
