Driven by elevated promotional spend, market-wide gaming commissions reached a record 20.9 percent of Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) in the second quarter of 2026, as operators maintained high customer reinvestment amid intense competition for premium players, according to CBRE Equity Research.
The ratio rose from 20.5 percent in the previous quarter. However, CBRE analysts John DeCree and Max Marsh said it was partly inflated by weak VIP hold, which averaged 2.6 percent, around 90 basis points below the trailing 12-month average of 3.5 percent.
In absolute terms, commissions fell 5.0 percent quarter on quarter to $1.57 billion, from $1.65 billion in the first quarter. The record therefore applied to commissions as a share of GGR, rather than the amount spent.
The measure broadly covers commissions, complimentary benefits and other player incentives deducted from gross casino win. It should not be interpreted solely as payments to junkets or conventional advertising expenditure.
Commission spending expected to rise
CBRE expects market-wide commissions to increase to nearly $1.62 billion in the third quarter and $1.73 billion in the fourth quarter. The amounts would represent 20.5 percent and 20.6 percent of GGR, respectively.
The brokerage said it continued to see an ‘elevated promotional environment’, although the ratio could show ‘some stabilization’ in the absence of significant hold volatility.
Macau concessionaires continue to face ‘limited EBITDA flowthrough and margin pressure’ due to high customer reinvestment and operating expenses, CBRE added.
Visitor growth fails to lift gaming yield
Macau’s August GGR fell 1.2 percent year on year to MOP21.89 billion ($2.72 billion), marking a third consecutive monthly decline. The result nevertheless improved from contractions of 12.1 percent in June and 8.4 percent in July.
CBRE said August failed to deliver the rebound some investors expected after the FIFA World Cup disrupted demand in June and July. The brokerage believes the tournament was ‘more of a substitute than a deferral’ of trips to Macau.
Visitor data for August was not yet available. In July, arrivals rose 2.4 percent year on year, supported by a 6.4 percent increase in same-day visitors and a 5.4 percent rise in mainland Chinese arrivals.
However, visitors from Hong Kong fell 10.2 percent, marking a third consecutive monthly decline. Hong Kong accounts for about 17 percent of Macau’s visitor arrivals, making it the city’s second-largest source market after Guangdong.
GGR per visitor dropped by about 10 percent in July, following a 9.2 percent decline in June. CBRE attributed much of the deterioration to the World Cup, noting that GGR per visitor had been broadly flat during the first five months of the year.
