Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is forecast to rise by 4.5 percent year-on-year in August to MOP23.16 billion ($2.87 billion), as customers return after deferring trips during the World Cup, according to Seaport Research Partners.
Vitaly Umansky, senior analyst at Seaport, expects average daily GGR to reach MOP747 million ($93 million), representing a 14.3 percent increase from July and 95 percent of the level recorded in August 2019.
The brokerage expects the recovery to be supported by ‘some customers coming back after deferring trips during the World Cup’, Umansky wrote in a research note.
Macau’s July GGR fell by 8.4 percent year-on-year to MOP20.26 billion ($2.51 billion), although the result represented a 9.4 percent rebound from June. Average daily GGR reached approximately MOP654 million ($81 million).
Seaport said both June and July were ‘materially impacted’ by the World Cup, which reduced customer visitation, particularly in the premium mass and VIP segments. The tournament also led to lower activity among gaming agents.
However, gaming activity improved during the second half of July following the conclusion of the World Cup. The recovery was modestly disrupted by an unexpected typhoon north of Hong Kong during the weekend of 25th and 26th of July.
Seaport estimated that mass-market GGR declined less sharply than VIP revenue during July. VIP hold remained elevated during the month but was lower than in July 2025.
The brokerage expects the recovery to continue into September, forecasting an 11 percent year-on-year increase in GGR. Third-quarter GGR is projected to grow by 1.8 percent, followed by a 3.2 percent rise in the fourth quarter.
At the operator level, Seaport estimated that Galaxy Entertainment recorded the largest market-share gain in July, partly due to favorable hold. Melco Resorts saw the largest decline, partly because of lower VIP hold, followed by Wynn Macau. Sands China was estimated to have gained slightly.
