Investment bank Citigroup anticipates that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) in May could reach MOP20 billion ($2.49 billion), about 77 percent of 2019 levels.
The group made the comment following the announcement by the Macau gaming regulator, the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ), regarding April gaming revenue. Macau’s April GGR came in at MOP18.5 billion ($2.29 billion), falling 4.9 percent from March but growing 26 percent from the same month of 2023.
This figure represents MOP618 million ($77 million) per day and 79 percent of April 2019 levels. Analysts George Choi and Ryan Cheung note that this implies that the daily run-rate for the final nine days of the month increased to MOP672 million ($83.8 million), which is about 12 percent higher than that of the prior week, at MOP600 million ($74.8 million).
‘We believe the higher daily run rate suggests that there were some early birds going to Macau even before the Labor Day Holidays (which span from May 1st to May 5th for Mainland China) start,’ note the analysts.
In another investment memo from Morgan Stanley, analysts note that the month-on-month drop in GGR is ‘slightly better than the normal seasonality of 6 percent month-on-month drop’.
Analysts Praveen K Choudhary and Gareth Leung estimate that Macau’s mass GGR came in at 114 percent of the 2019 level versus 112 percent for 1Q24, while mass GGR per Chinese visitation remained well above the 2019 level – it was 149 percent of the 2019 level in March 2024.
Morgan Stanley forecasts May GGR at MOP19.7 million ($2.46 billion), slightly lower than Citigroup’s forecast. Second quarter GGR is also expected to experience a sequential drop of 2 percent but still attain 77 percent of 2Q19 levels.
Labor Day hotel prices 30 percent below CNY
In an investment memo from UBS, the research team finds that the May Labor Week holiday begins on May 1st, with 24 out of 31 tracked hotels being sold out or reserved, while during the Chinese New Year (CNY) Holiday this year, 27 hotels were fully booked. However, ‘comparable hotel prices averaged 30 percent below CNY 2024 levels,’ note the analysts.
UBS indicates that the event pipeline turns busy in May, with all operators (except MGM) holding concerts during the Labor Week holiday.
Macquarie Equity Research reveals that 11 of 32 local luxury hotels indicated all five nights of the break were fully booked one week ahead of the Labor Day holiday. The Macau Tourism Industry Association expects the hotel occupancy rate to be 90 percent, versus 85 percent last year.
