Sterne Agee still expects Macau GGR down 15% – 19% for year

Gaming market researcher Sterne Agee is sticking with its predictions of a 15 percent to 19 percent fall in gross gaming revenue in Macau despite a modest pickup in the mass market last week.
“According to our checks, September’s GGR run-rate indicates a -16% year over year monthly result.” Research Director David Bain gives a monthly revenue figure of MOP24.5 billion ($3.2B). He said in a note yesterday that mass GGR was close to flat in September but rebounded somewhat last week. “We anticipate September mass GGR will end at or slightly better than +7% YoY while VIP will finish near –21%.”
“Our month-to-date GGR check is likely in line with cautious near-term investor expectations, in our view. However, we believe our forecast for a single-digit mass increase in September may be below most outlooks. As we discussed in previous publications, we believe China President Xi’s anti-corruption campaign (and certain Mainland economic uncertainties) are not just impacting VIP, but premium mass as well – which is a sizable controlling piece of the overall mass market”.
Bain says that prices for Macau gaming stocks have absorbed short term bad news but long term positives have been dismissed.