Morgan Stanley analysts forecast Macau’s August 2024 Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) will reach MOP18.8 billion ($2.35 billion), a 1 percent increase month-over-month, lower than the normal seasonal uptick of 3 percent, but a 9 percent yearly jump.
For the FY24, the investment bank expects GGR to reach MOP224 billion ($28 billion), or MOP612 million ($76.5 million) per day, which would represent 77 percent of the 2019 pre-pandemic level, a projection 3 percent below market consensus.
According to the recent Morgan Stanley report, Macau’s July 2024 GGR came in at MOP18.6 billion ($2.33 billion), or MOP600 million ($75 million) per day. This represents a 5 percent increase monthly, which is below the normal seasonal uptick of 8 percent.
However, it marks a 12 percent jump yearly, though this is lower than the 16 percent year-on-year growth seen in June. The July GGR figure represents 76 percent of the 2019 level, slightly below the 74 percent achieved in June.
Morgan Stanley notes that the July GGR was 2 percent below their own estimate, as well as market consensus, which was MOP18.9-19 billion ($2.36-2.38 billion).
The investment bank suggests that the weaker-than-expected performance in the last week of July, with the daily average run rate dropping below MOP600 million ($75 million), may have been influenced by numerous factors.
‘We think July GGR could have been dragged by weaker visitation and China macros, Europe Cup impact in the first half of July, and tighter controls on money exchange’, the report stated.
China and Macau authorities have recently carried out a crackdown on illicit money exchanges.
The dispatch also underscores the continued recovery of Macau’s gaming industry, though the pace of growth appears to be moderating compared to earlier stages of the post-pandemic rebound.
