Following a weaker-than-expected February performance, Deutsche Bank forecasts that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) will grow by 3.4 percent year-on-year in March, reaching $2.52 billion.
In its latest investment memo, released after Macau’s February GGR figures were published, analyst Carlo Santarelli noted that the projection for March is based on historical patterns. Between 2013 and 2019, March typically saw an average growth of approximately 2.0 percent compared to the average win per day over the combined January and February period. Applying this trend to 2025, Deutsche Bank estimates that the year-on-year increase could reach as much as 4.4 percent for March.
February’s GGR reached $2.47 billion, marking an 8.2 percent sequential increase (+19.8 percent per day) compared to January. On a year-on-year basis, February’s GGR rose 6.8 percent.
Santarelli highlighted that the 19.8 percent sequential improvement per day exceeded historical trends by approximately 430 basis points, as the average February increase relative to January, from 2013 to 2019, was 15.5 percent. However, he cautioned that this figure is somewhat ‘misleading’ due to the shifting timing of Chinese New Year, which can significantly influence monthly revenue performance.
Despite the improvement, February’s GGR remained 22.2 percent below the same month in 2019, though this represents an improvement from January’s 26.8 percent decline compared to January 2019.
Looking ahead, Deutsche Bank estimates that Macau’s GGR for the first quarter of 2025 will reach $7.28 billion, reflecting a 1.5 percent year-on-year increase.
For the full year 2025, the bank projects total GGR to reach $29.25 billion, a 3.1 percent year-on-year increase. Growth is expected to continue into 2026, with GGR forecasted to rise by 3.5 percent to $30.27 billion.
Single-digit growth expected
In a comment to local media, Macau economist Samuel Tong predicted that Macau’s GGR would see single-digit growth this year, with annual revenue likely to slightly exceed last year’s MOP226.7 billion ($28.3 billion).
Tong noted that the external environment is becoming increasingly complex and unpredictable, posing significant challenges to Macau’s economy and gaming sector. He emphasized the need for the government, businesses, and residents to enhance their ability to anticipate and adapt to changes. With support from the central government, Macau should accelerate its integration into national development and contribute more effectively to the broader economic landscape.
Meanwhile, Henry Lei, Associate Head of the Department of Finance and Business Economics at the University of Macau, pointed out that while February’s gaming revenue was higher than January’s, total revenue for the first two months of the year fell short of the MOP20 billion ($2.5 billion) monthly target.
He attributed this shortfall to rising international uncertainties, including the impact of U.S. trade policies and a decline in visitor spending power. Given these factors, Lei maintained a cautious outlook on this year’s gaming revenue, forecasting overall economic growth in the range of 5 percent to 7 percent.
Lei also stressed the importance of leveraging Beijing’s supportive policies for Macau and actively implementing more visitor-attracting initiatives. He suggested increasing promotions for outdoor performance venues and enhancing publicity for related events. Hosting activities in a carnival-style format or as a series of themed events could extend tourists’ stays and boost spending, which he believes would benefit the overall economy.
