Deutsche Bank estimates that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) may rise 732 percent yearly in 3Q23, reaching $5.78 billion. The estimated GGR for 3Q23 is still 35 percent lower than the same period in 2019.
At the same time, the analysts upgraded slightly their 2023 Macau GGR estimates: from $21.47 billion to $21.48 billion. According to the latest estimate, Deutsche Bank believes that Macau GGR in 2023 could increase 314 percent yearly, forecast to be 40 percent lower than pre-COVID levels. This highly contrasts the Macau government’s budgetary predictions for 2023 GGR of MOP$130 billion ($16 billion).
Macau recorded casino GGR of MOP15.21 billion ($1.88 billion) in June, down 2.3 percent from the MOP15.57 billion ($1.93 billion) in May. Although Macau had a slight drop monthly in GGR, Deutsche Bank indicates in its report that the June results represent a 1 percent improvement in daily GGR. “The 1 percent sequential improvement per day implies a healthy acceleration in the seasonal sequential trend, as the average sequential uptick in June, relative to May, over the 2016 to 2019 period, was an 8.5 percent decline,” they further.
The research leads analyst Carlo Santarelli to maintain the forecast regarding the SAR’s recovery, saying that the Macau gaming industry will not return to 2019 levels within 2024, estimating that next year Macau’s GGR may reach $27.64 billion, a 27 percent increase compared to 2023, but still 25 percent lower than 2019.
In a note, Deutsche Bank also shared its estimates of market share changes. According to the broker, Sands China keeps its lead with a 25.5 percent market share, and Galaxy Macau follows with a 17.7 percent market share.
Among the six gaming operators, SJM has seen its market share increase most, from 11 percent to 12.3 percent up until the end of May.
According to data from the local Government, Macau had an daily average of over 70,000 visitor arrivals in June and had an aggregate of nearly 9.44 million visitor arrivals for the first five months of this year, of which just above 6 million – or 64.6 percent – were from mainland China. The Government expects more than 20 million tourists by the end of the year.