Near term headwinds to limit investor appetite: Bernstein

Investor concerns over decelerating growth, the Chinese economy, and the escalation of US-China trade tensions will likely create headwinds for GGR in the short to medium term, said Bernstein in a note on Monday.

In 18Q2, GGR grew by 17 percent year-on-year, down from 21 percent in 18Q1 and 21 percent in 17H2. Bernstein said that the deceleration observed in both VIP and mass GGR is a preview of the slowing growth that Macau will experience over the next 12-18 months.

Looking at stock valuation, Bernstein said that robust valuation expansion in the near term is less likely, and that specific stock performance should be driven by individual company catalysts and execution.

“If China economic slowdown does not materialize as we expect, there is upside risk to our estimates and valuations, largely on the VIP side,” said Bernstein.

In the long term, improvements in transportation infrastructure and the opening and ramp up of new casino resorts will support long-term growth in mass, and thus, Macau’s long-term growth story, said Bernstein.

With this in mind, Bernstein estimates GGR growth of 14 percent in 2018, with mass to grow 17 percent and VIP to grow 11 percent. Industry-wide EBITDA is expected to grow 21 percent.

SHARE
Previous articleLandowners put the squeeze on Kasamatsu Racecourse
Next articleSuccess Dragon raises funds through share placement

Related Articles

China Stocks

Nerves of steel and a long-term view needed for stock investors

Asia’s gaming stocks have been pummelled by the outbreak of the coronavirus, but with signs China may be bringing the disease under control, is it nearing the time to re-enter the market?

Economic toll deepens, but underlying optimism intact

The Coronavirus, now renamed as Covid-19, has devastated the near-term outlook for Asia’s casino operators, though analysts still expect demand to snap back sharply once the outbreak is under control. The big question is when that might be.

Macau October GGR seen down 73%: Bernstein

Macau's gross gambling revenue for October is expected to be down 73 percent with channel checks showing GGR up until October 26 at MOP5.95 billion (US$747 million), according to Bernstein research. 

May GGR expected to be down 90 – 95%: Bernstein

Analysts at Bernstein Research expect Macau to report a 90-95 percent year-on-year fall in GGR in the month of May, as the gambling enclave continues to be impacted by Covid-19 travel restrictions.  In a filing on Monday, the brokerage noted that month-to-date average daily revenue (ADR) is down 94 percent year-on-year compared to May 2019. […]
Macau 2020 GGR

Bernstein sees Macau 2020 GGR down 37%, favours Galaxy

Macau’s gross gambling revenue is likely to fall 37 percent in 2020, before rebounding strongly next year, and Galaxy Entertainment stands out as the “least risky” gaming company, Bernstein Research said in a note.
macau-gaming-table

No immediate liquidity concerns for Macau operators

Macau’s six operators have enough liquidity for the next six months before they are likely to need to draw on debt financing, Bernstein Research reported.

Macau GGR could decline well over 40% in 2020: Bernstein

Macau gross gaming revenue could decline “well-over” 40 percent in a slow recovery environment, said Bernstein analyst Vitaly Umansky in a webinar on Tuesday. The decline will depend mainly on visa and transport resumption as it relates to mainland Chinese visitor arrivals.  Currently, visitation into Macau is running at around 10 percent of normal as […]

Macau GGR set for 8% growth in 2020, driven by VIP rebound

Macau gross gaming revenue could grow as much as 8 percent year-on-year in 2020, driven by VIP recovery in 20H2, and continued strength in mass.  According to analysts from Bernstein, mass is expected to continue to show strength in 2020, growing at 9 percent year-on-year.  Bernstein noted that a fundamental growth constraint in 2019 was […]

Wynn Macau to benefit most from rising premium mass

Wynn Macau is likely to benefit more than other operators when it comes to the growth of the premium mass sector in Macau, according to analysts from Bernstein in a 160-page report on Wednesday.  Year-to-date, VIP has declined mid-teens percentage as growth in mass has remained above 10 percent.  Bernstein said it expects mass GGR […]

Macau ADR down in first ten days of November

The first ten days of November are off to a slow start in Macau, with month-to-date average daily revenue (ADR) down 10 percent year-on-year, according to a note from Bernstein on Tuesday. According to channel checks, Macau GGR for November 1-10 is estimated to be MOP7.5 billion, with mass remaining robust, rising by low double […]