Melco Resorts & Entertainment and MGM Resorts are likely to have gained market share in Q3 as new properties ramp up, while Wynn Resorts and Galaxy Entertainment may have slipped due to their greater reliance on VIP, Bernstein analysts say.
According to the firm, overall gross gambling revenue in the quarter was down 4 percent year-on-year, with the pace of decline accelerating from a 0.5 percent drop in the prior quarter.
The main weakness is in the VIP segment, where Bernstein reckons revenue will have declined 21 percent year-on-year. Mass on the other hand has held up well, gaining 11 percent from the same quarter a year earlier, which is the same as its performance the prior quarter.
“For individual operators, MGM China and Melco continue to gain overall GGR market shares as they ramp up their new properties opened last year, whereas Wynn Macau and Galaxy continue to suffer from a weakened VIP market,” Bernstein said in a note.
MGM opened its Cotai IR, MGM Cotai last year, while Melco opened its Morpheus Hotel.
“Looking ahead, the rest of 2019 will remain tough as VIP and high-end mass face continued headwinds. We estimate GGR to be -5 percent y/y in Q4 2019 but should see sequential improvement.”
“Mass GGR continues to show growth but is showing deceleration.”
Longer term Bernstein expects GGR to be -3 percent in 2019, +8 percent in 2020 and +11 percent in 2021.