Macau Oct. GGR falls 3.2 percent

Macau’s gross gambling revenue dropped 3.2 percent in October, slightly worse than the consensus forecasts from analysts.

According to the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ), GGR in the month was MOP26.44 billion ($3.27 billion), down from MOP27.32 billion in the same month last year. The figure is up from MOP22.07 billion in September.

Year-to-date, GGR is MOP246.74 billion, down 1.8 percent. The DICJ doesn’t provide commentary on its monthly data and does not give a breakdown between VIP and mass market revenue.

According to analysts at Deutsche Bank, the figure was 90 basis points better than its forecast for a decline of 4.1 percent, but was worse than the consensus for a 2 percent drop. 

“We continue to believe the setup for the balance of the year is challenging, and our 4Q19 estimate of -6.1 percent compares to Consensus Metrix Consensus of -5.2 percent,” the note said. “We expect political sensitivity to heat up, and high end volumes to soften, with the visit from Xi Jinping in December, while the potential for US-China trade talks in Macau, should the meeting take place, could also weigh on trends.”

The downturn in GGR is mainly due to weak VIP revenue. In Q3, the mass market was still strong gaining 18 percent, though the high roller segment saw an almost 23 percent decline.