Macau GGR expected to fall 2-4% in August

Gross gaming revenues in Macau is expected to decline between 2-4 percent year-on-year in August, affected by Typhoon Lekima earlier in the month, and transport disruptions in Hong  Kong. 

According to Bernstein’s channel checks, for the first 25 days of the month, Macau GGR was estimated at MOP20.6 billion, with an average daily rate of MOP 824 million (US$101.9 million).

ADR for the last week (August 19-25) however, decreased to MOP 828 million. 

Bernstein noted that the month’s GGR has been impacted by Typhoon Lekima, which hit coastal cities in China. There has also been some impact from the protests in Hong Kong, which may have caused some transport disruption and created a headwind to China visitation into Hong Kong and Macau. However, the brokerage noted that the impact of HK protests has been immaterial.

That being said, there has also been some negativity surrounding Suncity, which continues to pressure junket VIP with some agents withdrawing some funds and VIP players delaying their trips to Macau. 

“Overall negatively surrounding the geopolitical and macro situation continues to have an impact on GGR,” said Bernstein. 

For August, analysts from Bernstein are estimating a 2-4 percent decline in GGR. 

Positive growth in August would only be possible with outsized VIP growth, but this is not likely at this stage, they said.