Macau 15Q3 gov’t data shows flat sequential mass GGR

Combined gross gaming revenue in 15Q3 from mass market and slots in Macau was flat sequentially from 15Q2, amounting to MOP25.4 billion ($3.2 billion) and an indication of market stabilization, according to official data. 

Combined mass and slots GGR had previously declined sequentially every quarter since 14Q1, indicating this quarter is, according to Union Gaming analysts, a cause for optimism as it relates to stability in the high-margin segment. 

“We would also note that over the past 24 hours, both Galaxy Entertainment and Wynn Macau have reported sequential growth in their mass market segments.”

According to the official data, VIP accounted for 53 percent of total revenue in 15Q3 with mass and slots accounting for 47 percent. However, this does not take into account the ongoing reclassification scheme first instituted in 4Q14 by certain operators who are running premium mass games as VIP in order to allow smoking, UG said.

“When we adjust 3Q15 reported GGR for these reclassifications, we estimate that mass and slots accounted for 51% of GGR in 3Q15, which marked the first time VIP has not accounted for a majority of gaming revenue in Macau. This is a milestone event that represents the future of Macau.”

According to Wells Fargo, average daily rates for November are tracking down 9.7 percent month on month, suggesting mass volumes could soften next month. 

“Note that our read on October ADR, which likely benefited from China’s Golden Week holiday early in the month, is tracking up 9.5% m/m (vs. 10.3% m/m recorded last week).”