June GGR seen gaining 3-5 percent: Bernstein

Gross gaming revenue in June is expected to be lower than in the prior two months, but should still gain between 3 and 5 percent, according to analysts at Bernstein Research.

For the period from June 1-9, GGR was MOP6.65 billion ($827.8 million), giving an average daily rate so far of MOP738 million. That’s down 12 percent from May and 6 percent from April.

The main drag is still VIP, which is expected to be down in mid-single digits in terms of volume, while mass is estimated to be down low-single digits, it said.

“Heading into June and July, we expect y/y comparison to begin easing,” Bernstein said in a note. “Recall GGR was quite robust in early 2018, until US-China trade tensions heightened beginning last summer.”

“One area of potential high end GGR stabilization and renewed strength may come from a recovering credit cycle in China which may support VIP recovery in 2H,” the note adds, warning however that recent news on the trade front has not been positive.

Bernstein estimates that Melco Resorts & Entertainment, SJM Holdings and Galaxy Entertainment likely gained most in market share during this early June period.