Overseas spending by mainland Chinese travellers is expected to increase by US$411 billion between now and 2025, with the total number of travellers leaving China to roughly double over the next decade, says Bernstein.
“With rising incomes, rising passport issuance and easing visa restrictions, Chinese travelers are going to become more common in just about every market globally in coming years,” said the brokerage in a Thursday report titled: China Aboard: International and Domestic Travel to 2025… From the Middle Cabin to the Middle Seat.
According to the note, Mainland Chinese travellers are expected to embark on approximately 260 million trips by 2025, compared to 135 million in 2016.
“Yet spending per visit outside of Hong Kong and Macau is likely to barely move. It is the sheer scale of incremental visitors and their aggregate spending power that will distort markets.”
While the premium-traveller segment will continue to rise, the brokerage also notes that China’s economy travellers will drive total spending.
Bernstein says it estimates total spending from Chinese outbound travel to increase from US$261 billion in 2016 to US$672 billion, a 11 percent CAGR in absolute spending between now and 2025.
“No matter how you approach this, we are just at the start of this trend.”