Macau gross gambling revenue in 18Q1 is estimated to grow 18 percent year-on-year, driven by stronger year-on-year growth in VIP vs mass, say analysts from Bernstein.
However, there will be some slight deceleration in GGR in the 18Q2 due to slowing VIP demand and a more difficult comparison, but mass should continue to show robust growth, said the brokerage.
The estimates come in after an observed strong fourth quarter in 2017 – with mass driven by expanding premium mass and continuing growth in overnight visitors. VIP also benefited from strong fundamental demand and good junket liquidity in the quarter.
Looking at the full year 2018, Bernstein has slightly raised its estimated GGR growth to 11 percent, comprised of mass year-on-year growth of 12 percent (from 11 percent) and VIP growth of 9.5 percent. (from 8 percent). Industry EBITDA growth has been revised to 13 percent (up from 10 percent).
Bernstein said its top picks in the sector include Melco Resorts and Wynn Macau.
This Dossier results from the “Life After POGOs” editorial project by Asia Gaming Brief which culminated with a pop-up digital forum on 9th December to discuss potentials ramifications in the industry.
The local government has decided to extend tax incentives for the two casinos facing the economic challenges of the pandemic through the end of 2020. This two-month extension is estimated to reduce tax intake by about 7.3 million rubles (US$96,000).
Over the years, many of the answers have been remarkably prescient in their forecasts for the near-term direction of Asia’s gaming industry. However, we can safely say that no one came anywhere close to guessing
what 2020 may have had in store.
While nowhere in the world has escaped the economic fallout from the Covid-19 crisis, Macau has been hit harder than most, with forecasts for gross domestic product to shrink more than 50 percent this year.