Bernstein forecasts 3 percent GGR growth in 2019

VIP headwinds are likely to cause further deceleration of the sector in 2019, and may knock-on to the higher end of the mass market, said Bernstein analysts in a note on Friday.

Bernstein is projecting total 2019 Macau GGR to grow three percent year-on-year, driven by a seven percent year-on-year growth in mass, but offset by a two percent fall in VIP revenue.

“The VIP segment is likely to continue to face headwinds in the earlier part of 2019, until more promising China macro data and resolution of U.S. China trade war materialize. Mass is projected to continue to show growth, albeit at a slower rate, with high occupancy rate and visitation trends acting as headwinds,” said the brokerage.

The analysts have upgraded Galaxy and Sands to Outperform, due partly to valuation, outlook into 2020 and both companies due to have “significant capacity” coming online in Macau.