Accelerating visitation boosts mass forecast for 2019: MS

Morgan Stanley analysts have become “incrementally positive” for GGR improvement in the second half of 2019, driven by a stronger China outlook.

In a note on Tuesday, the brokerage said that earlier concerns, such as earnings estimate revisions and leading macro indicators have either turned around or appear to be bottoming.

Morgan Stanley said they have raised their mass revenue growth forecast to 7 percent in 2019, up from 2 percent, as a result of accelerating visitation growth.

However, their VIP growth forecast for the year remains the same at -6 percent, with the smoking ban, competition from ASEAN, and a continued crackdown on illegal underground banking to continue to affect this segment in 2019.

“Risk is also rising with midsized junkets folding and ongoing consolidation at the top,” added the analysts.

As a result, Morgan Stanley said they have now revised their 2019 GGR forecast to 1 percent growth in 2019 compared to -2 percent growth in earlier forecasts.

Morgan Stanley managing director Praveen Choudhary will be speaking at ASEAN Gaming Summit from 19-21 March at the Conrad Manila.