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The indicators are lining up and pointing to a positive future for Macau, however, without the improvement of visa processing in China, the recovery is likely to continue at its current steady pace.
Surprising strength in Chinese luxury spending, an ongoing clampdown on online gambling and limited travel options all bode well for Macau and shares in its operators, Morgan Stanley said.
Macau’s gross gambling revenue plunged 94.5 percent in August, the fifth straight month of a more than 90 percent decline, even though visitation has begun to improve.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate Macau’s VIP revenues to have declined 35 percent year-on-year in 19Q4, while mass and slots grew around 6 percent in the same quarter. The analysts made the comments in a 19Q4 preview note, sent on Monday. Last quarter, Macau recorded 19Q4 GGR of MOP72.2 billion (US$9 billion), which was down […]
Third-quarter results from Macau’s six gaming concessionaires, which are due to be released towards the end of this month, are expected to be weak, but within expectations, according to analysts from Morgan Stanley. The brokerage said this is due mainly to weak VIP results during the quarter, offset by strong mass. MS said it expects […]
While the Macau gaming industry has continued to see robust mass growth over the first half of the year, VIP growth is expected to see further growth decline in 2019, according to analysts from Morgan Stanley. Over the first half of the year, the mass market has remained robust, beating its prior year results by […]
Lower VIP gaming tax and the improving quality of casinos in the ASEAN region will see more high-rollers trying their luck in casinos located in Cambodia and the Philippines, say analysts from Morgan Stanley. In a report released last week, analysts from Morgan Stanley were investigating whether Macau’s lowered VIP gaming revenue was a result […]
The earnings of Macau’s six operators may produce some negative surprises amidst higher staff costs, higher reinvestment rates and slowing revenue growth, Morgan Stanley forecasts.
Analysts at Morgan Stanely expressed optimism for Macau’s gaming industry over the medium term, with expectations of a market cap doubling by end-2022, driven by improving infrastructure and higher multiples. According to analysts, a combination of infrastructure developments, supply additions, visitation from China’s lower-tier cities, and an increase in Chinese spending power could drive Macau […]
While Macau’s casinos benefited from strong visitation during Golden Week, Morgan Stanley analysts warn that weak third-quarter earnings and cuts in 2019 estimates may drive stocks down. According to the brokerage, Macau saw an increase in Golden Week visitation from China during the first six days – up 19 percent year-on-year, with VIP volume was […]
The combined market value of Macau’s six operators is expected to reach $146 billion by 2020, driven by a 13 percent revenue growth CAGR, said Morgan Stanley analysts in a Monday note. There are, however, significant risks of disruption, including Macau’s license rebidding process and competition from Japan and Hainan for Chinese gamblers. “In case […]
The restrictions on casino floor space and high taxes may mean returns from a Japanese IR may not be as high as some had expected, Morgan Stanley wrote in a Friday note.
MGM China is expected to report the weakest EBITDA amongst its peers in 18Q2, due to a slower ramp-up of its Cotai property, absence of VIP business, and the cannibalization of Peninsula casinos, say analysts from Morgan Stanley. “We expect MGM to report 2Q property EBITDA of US$142m (-13 percent QoQ), weakest among peers. While […]
Morgan Stanley analysts are expecting Macau revenue to grow 19 percent year-on-year in 18Q2, but decline two percent quarter-on-quarter, in line with normal seasonality. However, the brokerage also noted that Macau stocks have underperformed, influenced by news of the UnionPay POS terminal removal and the potential disruption from the World Cup. Looking at the second […]
Macau’s gross gambling revenue is tracking for a 20 percent gain in June, helped the opening of Melco Resorts & Entertainment’s Morpheus Hotel and the Dragon Boat festival, Morgan Stanley said in a note.
The seizure of UnionPay point of sale terminals (POS) from pawn shops in Macau earlier this month triggered a slide in operator shares on fears of tighter capital controls, though the continued use of illegal devices means there has been little impact on revenue. Two state-owned mainland banks, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) […]
Gross gambling revenue is tracking to growth between 16 percent and 18 percent in June if the currently daily rate is maintained throughout the month, Bernstein Research says.
The upcoming World Cup could result in weaker than expected GGR growth in the summer, while Union Pay POS terminal concerns are overblown, say Morgan Stanley analysts. “Macau underperforms the Hang Seng Index almost every year in Q2. This year it was accentuated by news of unavailability of Union Pay POS terminals as well as […]
Macau authorities, in conjunction with Chinese banks, have been removing China UnionPay point of sale terminals from pawn shops operating in casinos, creating jitters the move may herald a broader attempt to control capital outflows.
Macau’s gaming regulator published a breakdown of Macau GGR for the fourth quarter of 2017 on Tuesday, revealing higher than expected mass GGR performance, and decelerated VIP growth in the quarter. According to a note from Union Gaming, the Q4 results were outside of investor expectations – which was expecting a stronger weighting of growth […]
Bloomberry Resorts would see its debt levels rise and a reduction in return on invested capital in the short term if it buys the land on which its Solaire Resort & Casino is based, though longer term it may improve valuations, according to Morgan Stanley. Market regulator, the Philippine Amusement & Gaming Corp., earlier this […]
Macau gross gaming revenue could reach as high as US$53 billion in 2022, driven by infrastructure, visitation and rising spending growth, wrote analysts from Morgan Stanley in a note on Tuesday. In a report titled: “Macau 2022 – Power of Compounding”, the brokerage says it believes the sector market cap will more than double by […]
VIP gamblers are returning to Australia in droves, with junket groups registering considerable increases in VIP volumes at Crown Melbourne and The Star. In a note made public by The Australian, Morgan Stanley equity analyst Monique Rooney said the improved volume was attributed to the recent release of Crown employees from prison in China after […]
Morgan Stanley analysts have revised down its estimates for MGM China after the company announced the delay of its new Cotai property, as well as higher capex. Last Friday, MGM China said it is no longer targeting a fourth quarter opening of MGM Cotai after assessing damage caused by Typhoon Hato which struck in August. […]
Increasing visitation, mass penetration, and a strong local economy will serve as drivers of growth for Manila’s casinos over the next few years, according to Morgan Stanley. Entertainment City’s newest resort complex, Okada Manila, is already gaining momentum, with its mass floor now fully operational and more junkets set to start operators next quarter (including […]
Rising scrutiny, transaction limits and other KYC measures relating to UnionPay card use may pose a risk for Macau’s premium mass segment, according to Morgan Stanley’s AlphaWise survey. “Dependence on UnionPay cards for cash remained high and increased compared to the last two surveys. With facial recognition, transaction limits, and rising scrutiny, there is increased […]
The aftermath left by Typhoon Hato and Pakhar may cause a weaker GGR result for August, but will not have any permanent impact, say Morgan Stanley analysts. The brokerage says it expects Macau GGR to rebound sharply this week and in September, but noted mass may be slower to pick back up compared to VIP. […]
Analysts have revised their monthly estimates for gross gaming revenue, with Macau recording strong occupancy rates and room rates in the most recent week (August 14-20). According to a weekly report from Bernstein, Macau saw gross gaming revenue month-to-date reach MOP 15.4 billion ($1.9 billion). ADR for the week was MOP 828 million, with volumes […]
The opening of Okada Manila hasn’t cannibalized the gaming revenues of Manila’s integrated resorts, with GGR rising 20 percent, 28 percent and 13 percent quarter-on-quarter in 17Q2, according to a note from Morgan Stanley on Thursday. Philippines gaming stocks have not performed well since May, due to concerns about Okada, but Morgan Stanley said it […]
Travellers International Hotel Group reported a lower-than-expected profit for the first half of 2017 after a June 2 attack shut down gaming operations at Resorts World Manila. The company reported net profit of P373 million in the first half of 2017, down 79.2 percent compared to P1.8 billion in 16H1. Net revenues for the six […]
Property EBITDA for Genting Singapore in the second quarter of 2017 is forecast to reach S$270 million (US$198.7 million), according to estimates from Morgan Stanley. The result would be a 119 percent year-on-year increase from the second quarter of 2016, and a 6 percent decline quarter-on-quarter. “While Genting Singapore remains cautious on granting credits, we […]
Total net revenues for Sands China increased 23 percent year-on-year to US$1.8 billion in the second quarter of 2017, driven by strong mass gaming revenue growth. Net income for Sands China increased 37.6 percent year-on-year to US$326 million in 17Q2, compared to US$237 million in 16Q2. “During the quarter both our Macao and Singapore operations […]
Wynn Resorts’ Macau operations have posted a 57.5 percent increase in net profit for the second quarter of 2017, reaching US$102.6 million, boosted by strong revenue growth. Casino revenue reached $1 billion in the quarter, compared to US$608.4 million in 16Q2. Regarding Wynn’s two properties in Macau, Morgan Stanley analysts said the performance at the […]
Mass market revenue is set to face some headwinds due to regulatory pressure, according to Morgan Stanley analysts in a note on Tuesday. The brokerage said mass market growth decelerated in June, with estimated adjusted mass revenue growth down to 11 percent year-on-year in June, compared to 24 percent in May and 16 percent for […]
Philippines gross gaming revenue is expected to grow 26 percent year-on-year in 17Q2, driven by proxy betting attracting foreign VIP revenues, along with a low sequential growth in mass, says Morgan Stanley. Industry EBITDA is also expected to see growth in the quarter, driven by Bloomberry and Melco, but partially offset by Travellers, it said. […]
Wynn and Galaxy are expected to outperform over MGM, Melco and SJM during the 17Q2 results season, driven by market share gains in both VIP and mass, says Morgan Stanley. The brokerage in a Thursday note pointed to Galaxy and Wynn Macau to be their top picks (previously Melco) due to more attractive valuation and […]
Philippines is set to emerge as the largest entertainment market in ASEAN – surpassing that of Singapore due to favorable policies and infrastructure development, says Morgan Stanley. “…the Philippines has favorable policies (allowance of junkets, proxy betting and so on) and strong tourist arrivals to drive foreigners’ revenue. Local spending is backed by a strong […]
Weaker GGR seasonality, wage inflation and the delay in MGM Cotai could lead to potential underperformance of Macau’s gaming stocks in 17Q2, said Morgan Stanley in a note on Monday. According to the brokerage, Macau gaming stocks have underperformed the Hang Sang Index yearly since 2012, with the exception of 2013. “Weaker GGR seasonality in […]
Morgan Stanley analysts are estimating Macau property EBITDA to reach US$1.8 billion in 17Q1, representing a 20 percent year-on-year growth. March GGR grew 5 percent quarter-on-quarter and 13 percent year on year to MOP 63.5 billion (US$7.9 billion), said the brokerage in a note on Thursday. Looking at the quarter, the brokerage expects Melco Resorts […]
Macau’s casino operators are likely to facing increasing margin pressure in 2017 as overall costs rise and promotional pressures gain with the uptick in VIP gaming, Morgan Stanley wrote in a note. The firm said staff costs rose by 5 percent in the second half of last year with the opening of the Wynn Palace […]
Recent analysis of Google search data and observation of market trends suggest that Wynn Macau’s market share could rise higher than expected, notes Morgan Stanley. According to the brokerage’s AlphaWise team, there appears to be a correlation between Google searches of a particular property and its mass market share. “We have analyzed historical Google search […]
Company EBITDA is the single most important driver for industry as well as stock outperformance, notes Morgan Stanley in a report on Thursday. The brokerage, which released a “Primer on Macau” on Thursday, aims to identify indicators to predict industry turning points and highlight stock picking techniques. “For gaming stocks, typically the company with the […]
Casino operator Melco Crown Entertainment (MPEL) will likely post strong results for 16Q4 as a result of Studio City ramp up and a rebound of City of Dreams, said a note from Morgan Stanley on Sunday. The brokerage said it expects MPEL to report 5 percent quarter-on-quarter EBITDA growth, ahead of the industry average, due […]
Morgan Stanley has revised its 2017 EBITDA expectations for Wynn Palace to US$432 million following strong 16Q4 performance. “We expect continued ramp-up of Palace through 2017, as mass table yield and margins are still at a discount to industry averages,” said the brokerage in a note on Monday. Morgan Stanley says its EBITDA forecast for […]
Las Vegas Sands posted a 5.6 percent year-on-year increase in net income for the fourth quarter of 2016 to $607 million. The casino operator, which owns and operates casinos in Las Vegas, Pennsylvania, Singapore and Macau, saw a combined total of $3.1 billion in revenue in the quarter, a rise of 7.4 percent year-on-year. Revenue […]
Gambling revenue in Macau is poised to rise 7 percent in 2017 led by mass market players, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. In November, visitor numbers from South Korea, Japan and the U.S. went up, offsetting the decline in mainland Chinese tourist arrivals. “There are definitely more reasons to come to Macau now versus […]
Macau’s gross gambling revenue is likely to grow by 10 percent in 2017, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley, who raised their forecast from a prior estimate of 2 percent. “We believe the Macau cycle has turned and 2017 could show 10 percent GGR and 13 percent EBITDA growth, the first in four years,” it […]
Japan is not likely to pass the Casino IR Introduction BIll in the current Diet session, due to time constraints and the US Presidential election, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. The brokerage said it recently met with members of the House of Representatives in Japan to assess potential casino legalization, but said it does not […]
Macau casino operator Galaxy Entertainment Group posted a 28 percent year-on-year rise in net profit in the third quarter of 2016, above analyst expectations. In a filing to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Wednesday, the operator said it was “encouraged by the continuing signs of market stabilization.” The company reported profit of HK$2.7 billion […]
While Wynn Palace’s opening missed expectations, the market may be underestimating its long-term potential, said Morgan Stanley in a note on Sunday. “The opening of Wynn Palace, a US$4.3 billion project and the most expensive casino ever built in Macau (per hotel room basis), has been disappointing, and consensus may revise down EBITDA expectations for […]
Overseas (ex-Macau) VIP gaming revenue grew 27 percent year-on-year in 16Q2 after two years of negative growth, said Morgan Stanley in a note on Tuesday. “Part of that was driven by new casinos in Saipan /Vladivostok and part from junkets moving to low tax jurisdictions like the Philippines,” said the brokerage, referring to Imperial Pacific’s […]
Grand Korea Leisure posted below consensus Q4 results as the number of China VIP visitors continued to decline. Total sales fell 17 percent to KRW 123 billion ($100.6 million) as the number of Chinese VIPs fell by 37 percent. The company posted an operating profit of KRW 22 billion, below the average forecast for KRW […]
Macau’s mass market may be showing signs of stabilization, while the VIP and premium mass markets are declining, but may also be nearing the bottom, Morgan Stanley said in a report analyzing the impact of China’s anti-corruption campaign. The firm said the anti-corruption drive was a long-term necessity, but has had a disproportionate impact on […]
Morgan Stanley analysts have reduced their 2016 gross gaming revenue assumptions for the Philippines casino market to $1.6 billion, representing growth of 8 percent year-on-year, compared to previous estimates of $1.7 billion. Excluding City of Dreams Manila, which was in the initial stages of opening in 2015, “same-store sales growth” for Resorts World Manila and […]
NagaCorp’s winning streak is expected to continue, following positive 15Q3 results, as new initiatives bear fruit, according to Morgan Stanley research. NagaCorp reported 58 percent YoY growth in gross gaming revenue to $14.4 million driven by both VIP and mass. MS says that table drop facilities installed in July, stronger marketing with agents selling chips to […]
Morgan Stanley analysts said casino management have no choice but to focus on cost cutting after gross gaming revenue fell 44 percent in15Q2, with no signs of bottoming. “Cost cutting measures have intensified in the last six months after companies realized that some of the revenue losses are permanent,” MS Research said in a note. […]
The hype and grandeur of Galaxy has failed to lift the mood in Macau among more analysts, with Morgan Stanley saying despite the addition of new supply the market is still far from a turnaround. In a note, Morgan Stanley analysts said they are lowering their 15Q2 estimates and continue to have a cautious view […]
Morgan Stanley Research says it has turned cautious on Hong Kong and Macau’s gaming industry due to, among other things, regulatory pressures and oversupply concerns, though it expects GGR to pick up in 3Q and 4Q . The research house said negative earnings revisions and ROE declines were also seen as reasons to be cautious, […]
Morgan Stanley Research predicts Macau will see another sequential decline in EBITDA of 14 percent QoQ and 38 percent YoY in 15Q1 , with no signs of a turnaround. “We expect Macau gaming companies to see declines in EBITDA in 1Q15 of between 8-18% QoQ or 37- 41% YoY, similar to revenue decline of 14% […]
Asia’s gaming stocks have been pummelled by the outbreak of the coronavirus, but with signs China may be bringing the disease under control, is it nearing the time to re-enter the market?
Filipinos’ well known love for entertainment means the country’s casinos may see significant upside from their non-gaming attractions if they get the mix right, giving Macau a run for its money when it comes to creating a diversified entertainment hub in Asia. Morgan Stanley estimates non-gaming may account for 20 percent of what it projects will be a $5 billion market by 2020.
Singapore’s two gaming operators reported an improvement in Q2 results, helped by cost controls, lower bad debts and higher premium play, though analysts see few catalysts for significant expansion of the market. In 2007, Singapore granted Las Vegas Sands and Genting Singapore a license for one resort each, with exclusivity until 2017. Those licenses were renewed in 2016 for a further three years, but the government is not expected to allow any new entrants, therefore keeping a lid on the size of the island-state’s gaming market.
Asia’s gaming markets have seen a strong first half, with Macau, the Philippines and Cambodia leading the way, prompting some analysts to revise upwards their targets for the full year. But it hasn’t all been plain sailing; the fatal attack on Resorts World Manila lead to a suspension of its gambling operations in June, while South Korea continues to underperform after a diplomatic spat with China, which banned tour groups after Seoul agreed to deploy a U.S. missile shield.
Macau’s gaming stocks have rebounded to trade at two-year highs, tracking the recovery in gross gaming revenue, however analysts warn against over optimism, saying growth may be nearing its peak, at least in the short term.
Ask many mainland Chinese what their dream travel destination is and the answer is unlikely to be Macau. According to a survey by CLSA, Macau came bottom out of a list of 21 destinations, with Europe, the U.S. and Australia topping the list. So, could Sheldon Adelson have hit upon a winning formula with his latest resort -- the $2.8 billion Parisian? The property, like its sister next door, aims to bring a little bit of Europe to the Cotai strip, providing a taste of all things French without the lengthy voyage and language complexities.
Genting Malaysia, the country’s only casino operator, is ramping up preparation works as it prepares to begin rolling out the first stages of its RM10.38 billion ($2.46 billion) Genting Integrated Tourism Plan in the second half of this year. The company, which has said that it expects the economic environment to be challenging in 2016, is forecast to open its Sky Avenue & Sky Plaza shopping malls, and a new cable car station progressively by the end of the year. However, its much touted Twentieth Century Fox World theme park has been delayed to late 2017. The plan is still seen as the main catalyst for growth at the company as its overseas operations face headwinds.
Singapore’s two operators are seeking to add more non-gaming attractions to boost growth as income from their casinos continues to drag, with results released this week showing an unexpected drop in mass revenue at Marina Bay Sands. Casino revenue for the quarter fell 1.6 percent to $556.7 million, with adjusted property EBITDA dropping 1.7 percent to $357 million. The property reported a drop of 29 percent in its rolling chip volume, but more unexpected was the almost 11 percent drop in mass market volume year-on-year. Slot handle gained 6 percent.
Macau’s six casino operators will begin reporting Q2 results later this month, with analysts expecting a mixed bag. Though operators say they are seeing signs of stabilization in the market, that is unlikely to be reflected in the bottom line, at least for now. The consensus is that revenues and EBITDA will fall from the prior quarter and will hit the lowest level in five years.
Macau’s tourism development masterplan, which aims to transform the VIP gaming hub into a mass market, diversified leisure destination, forecasts as many as 40 million tourists a year by 2015. The blueprint contains a clear vision of what the government wants for the future, with tourists staying longer and spending more on non-gaming activities. However, tourism industry experts say Macau as a family destination faces significant headwinds and stakeholders still haven't reached consensus on what brand Macau should be.
Macau’s casino operators have already cut the low hanging fruit when it comes to reducing operating costs and are now struggling to further pare expenses as the slump in the market drags into its 19th straight month.With labour cuts not an easy option in Macau, the casinos face a juggling act in scaling back customer service standards without losing the customer. They are looking for creative ways to cut back behind the scenes and make every penny count.
On an overcast morning in Cambodia's capital, Phnom Penh, the country's flagship casino looks less familiar than it did a year ago as construction obscures the entire front entrance. NagaWorld, which began as a boat moored on the Mekong River 20 years ago, is undergoing a major revamp, which is expected to help accelerate growth at one of the brightest spots in Asia’s casino industry.
Macau Chief Executive Fernando Chui Sai On sent a clear message to the casino industry in the first policy address of his second term in office this week - the government is no longer just paying lip service to diversifying the economy away from gambling. The territory, which in just over a decade has grown its industry to be more than seven times the size of Las Vegas, is currently dependent on gambling for 85 percent of its income. However, after nine straight months of declining revenue that triggered a 17 percent contraction in Q4 gross domestic product, Chui said the industry is going through a phase of “adjustment.”The territory, which in just over a decade has grown its industry to be more than seven times the size of Las Vegas, is currently dependent on gambling for about 85 percent of its income. However, after nine straight months of declining revenue that triggered a 17 percent contraction in Q4 gross domestic product, Chui said the industry is going through a phase of “adjustment.”The government has cut its projected revenue from gambling receipts this year to average 20 billion patacas ($2.5 billion) a month from 27.5 billion patacas, while analysts are forecasting a second year of contraction, possibly by as much as 30 percent, according to Deutsche Bank.In his address, Chui said the government will strengthen its oversight of the casino industry as licenses come up for renewal and may require the companies to regularly submit their investment and development plans for review, in particular with regard to non-gaming activities. A tourism panel, under Chui’s supervision, will draft a five-year plan for stable casino growth that will make the region less reliant on casino revenue. Macau, Chui said, will become a center of tourism and leisure travel.