Leading brokerage Bernstein raises concerns that, “Q3 has been trending worse (for Macau Gaming), as there were 41 days of Macau border closure.” Bernstein expects Greater China travel between Hong Kong, Macau, China and potentially Taiwan to be fully in place by year-end

Macau’s casino operators are expected to report near zero revenue for July as Covid restrictions drag, with August likely to be down 89 percent from its pre-pandemic levels, analysts at Bernstein Research wrote. 

Macau is likely to avoid any long-term effects from a potential global recession, said analysts at Bernstein Research, pointing to the fact that the U.S. gambling industry has shown no signs of any impact from the slowing economy.

Macau gross gambling revenue (GGR) doubled sequentially in the latest week, as demand returned following the expected post-Golden Week holiday slump, according to Bernstein Research.

Macau gross gambling revenue in the week through to Feb. 20 was down a larger-than-expected 57 percent from the prior week due to seasonality post Chinese New Year and more Covid restrictions, Bernstein Research said.

Macau mass market gross gambling revenue is likely to be 15 percent higher than its 2019 levels by 2023 on a strong rebound in visitation and helped by capacity increases, Bernstein Research said.

The death of Macau's junket industry may also result in the loss of between 10-25 percent of its ultra-premium mass and between 5-10 percent of its premium mass business, according to a note from Bernstein Research.

Macau gross gambling revenue is down 12 percent week-on-week, dragged down by lower visitation and a drop in VIP revenue as junket operations dry up, according to channel checks from Bernstein Research.

Macau's gross gambling revenue in the first week of December was up 14 percent from the higher week and visitation into the city is holding up well, although the discovery of a Covid case in Guangdong province is something to watch, Bernstein Research said in a note.

Macau gross gambling revenue fell 18 percent week-on-week in the second week of November, despite stable visitation, due to “very low” VIP hold, Bernstein Research said.